So, on Saturday we gave Eli his $5M, which essentially locks us into another year with him at starting QB…or does it?
The fact is, there is another perfectly viable explanation. If we are going to want to make any trades before the upcoming NFL draft next month, it was imperative that we keep Eli. We obviously have no one else on the roster that we are ready to go into 2019 with at the helm. So, if we had cut/released Eli, everyone else in the league would know that we were desperate, which would give us no leverage at all in making a trade with, say, Arizona for Josh Rosen, or the Jets for the #3 pick. That would mean that we would likely have had to give Arizona one of our 1st round picks instead of the 2nd or maybe even 3rd rounder that the rest of the league seems to have valued Rosen at. That’s not in the best interests of our team. But by keeping Eli (and, not asking him to restructure his deal), we send the message that we are fine with having him back again, so, no, Arizona, et al, we don’t need your draft pick all that badly. So, aside from the fact that I actually think Eli’ll be just fine now that we have a real RG (& especially if we get a real RT, too), this was the move to make even if you want to draft or trade for a QB this year.
By comparison, look at what the Jets did last year to trade up 3 spots to draft Sam Darnold (who, btw, I am far from convinced about): they gave up three 2nd round picks and their own #6 overall pick in order to move up three spots to draft him. Two of those picks turned out to be Quenton Nelson, who will arguably be the best LG in all of football for the next 10 years (and is as good a bet as anyone from last year’s draft to be a HOFer); and Braden Smith, another outstanding O-lineman at RT (he moved there from RG to fill a team need, and excelled at it). They also got a pass-rushing DE, Kemoko Turay (5 sacks), and backup RB (Jordan Wilkins). As a result, the Colts gave up the fewest sacks in the NFL last year and made the playoffs, while Gang Green was 3 & 13 and has the #3 pick again this year. Oh, and the Colts get to use that final 2nd-round pick in the 2nd round of this year’s draft. Had the Jets simply drafted those same players themselves, and kept Teddy B at QB, what are the chances that they would be worse off now? Next to zero, since they only won 3 games as it is. Teddy and that improved O-line would’ve easily been good for 4 wins, and likely a few more, no? Oh, and btw, Darnold has already missed more games due to injury (3) than Eli has missed in his entire career (0), so, the whole, “we need a mobile QB” trope…um, not so much. Stay your ass in the pocket, fall when the sack is unavoidable, and live to see another play. Because the most important ability for a QB is AVAIL-ability, and Eli has been the role model for that for 15 years! (Speaking of which, Odell missed 21 of the 80 games in his 5 years with us. That’s more than 25% of his games. And Olivier missed 9 of his 48 games as a Giant—all of which were in the last two years/32 games. Just sayin’…)
From where I sit, there are four possible explanations as to what the Gettleman/the Giants are planning:
1) We have no plan, and are just incompetent. I know that a lot of Giants fans seem to believe that this is the case. I’m not one of them. Last year’s draft was arguably one of the best in Giants history: Saquon and Hernandez are excellent, Carter has the physical tools to be a beast, Hill is already a solid starter on the D-line, and we haven’t really seen what we can get from McIntosh or Beal yet (not to mention Lauletta). We also added Grant Haley, Tae Davis and Sean Chandler as rookies last year. When’s the last time that many rookies made the team, much less contributed? Two years from now we may be looking back on that draft as the turning point in our success. Thanks, Dave!
2) We trade for Josh Rosen. Ideally, with the 3rd round pick we just got from Cleveland (now, wouldn’t that make the Beckham/Vernon trade feel a little different?) But even if we get him with our 2nd round pick, that’s not bad…if Rosen turns out okay. And would it shock you if, 3 years from now, Rosen is better than Darnold, and has taken us to the playoffs once or twice? It wouldn’t shock me at all.
3) We draft Haskins with the #6 pick, and use the #17 on a RT (e.g. Dillard, Risner, Cajuste, or Taylor), and the 2nd round pick on Defense (a CB or an ILB?). Yes, our defense may still be mediocre, but the O-line will be outstanding, and we’ll have our next QB, ready to sit and learn from the master for at least a half-year or so. We can fix the defense *next year, or at least later in the draft this year. (We do have 12 picks this year, after all.)
4) Here’s the wildcard—we play Eli this year, don’t draft a QB, and sign then-free agent Russell Wilson next year! He’s an unrestricted free agent next season. What if he’s already made known that he wants to play here? (There have been rumors about that online already.) If you knew that you had a better-than-decent shot at Wilson next year, and that what he needed from you in order to agree to come here is: an improved O-line, less drama in the clubhouse (from, say, big-ego’d WRs and OLBs) and a decent defense, wouldn’t you try to make that happen? And would you, maybe, sign his all-time favorite target (Tate) as a WR now, to show him that you are working to make him happy? Just askin’…
So, there you have it—four plausible explanations for why we still have Eli. Oh, and btw, the “next year asterisk” above was to remind me to mention that we will likely have the most cap space in the NFL next year…roughly $100M! So yeah, we can afford Wilson next year, and a few other pieces as well. So, fixing the defense next year, via free agency, shouldn’t be too much to ask.
And again, we have 12 picks this year (in, essentially, an 8-round draft)—four of which are within the first three rounds. Maybe we can trade up with a few mid-to-late round picks (we have two 4th-rounders & three 5th-rounders) for another pick or 2 within the first 3 rounds? With 5 or 6 picks in the first 3 rounds, we should be able to shore up at least one or two more spots on both sides of the ball, no? I can see us drafting:
Round 1–Montez Sweat/OLB w/#6, Devin White-or-Bush/ILB w/#17; Round 2—Yodny Cajuste or Hjalte Froholdt/RT; then a trade up for Amari Oruwariye or Justin Layne/CB; Round 3—Andy Isabella, Emanuel Hall, or Hakeem Butler/WR; then another trade up for Charles Omenihu, Ben Banogu, or Anthony Nelson/DE. That still leaves us with several picks in the later rounds, where people like Drue Tranquill or Germaine Pratt/LB, and Jamel Dean, David Long, or Ken Webster/CB may still be available. And remember, we already improved this off-season at RG, slot WR, and FS at the very least. That’s not a bad start to a re-build!
Do/will I miss Odell?…Heck yeah! He was the most exciting WR in the league these past 5 years. Do I wish we had signed Daryl Williams &/or Teddy B this year (or Andrew Norwell last year)? Definitely. (And I still don’t understand why we didn’t. They each signed for less than we could’ve paid them, and, they all had seemed like shoo-ins.) But I’m not ready to throw in the towel on Dave Gettleman, just yet (much less on the Giants overall). Because I don’t think he deserves that…yet. So I’ll continue to root for him to sign another free agent (RT Mike Remmers?) and to have another great draft and put us back on the right path.
Plus, I root for the name on the helmet more so than the names on the jerseys.